Tin Market Under Bearish Resonance: Where Are the Support and Inflection Point After the Slump?

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As of yesterday's close, the U.S. dollar fell and base metals declined across the board, with Shanghai tin leading the drop:

1. Changjiang spot 1# tin: quoted at 369,250–371,250 yuan/ton, average transaction price 370,250 yuan/ton, down 17,250 yuan/ton or 4.45% on the day.

2. Shanghai tin main contract: hit a low of 365,150 yuan/ton, closed down 3.28%, a one-month low, breaking below the key support of 380,000 yuan/ton.

3. LME tin 3-month: 47,280 USD/ton, down 2.07%, with domestic and overseas markets weakening in tandem.

Core Causes of the Sharp Price Drop

1. Macroeconomic Bearish Resonance

· International: U.S. Dollar Index broke above 100 to a 10-month high; Fed rate-cut expectations delayed to September, high rates weighing on metal valuations; Middle East conflicts boosted oil prices and inflation, cooling market risk appetite.

· Domestic: Jan–Feb economic data improved, but electronics/semiconductors in seasonal slack; marginal tightening of PBOC liquidity; market sentiment affected by the 315 Gala.

2. Weakening Supply-Demand Fundamentals

· Ample supply: Myanmar tin mine recovery beat expectations with surging imports; Indonesia eased export controls raising refined tin imports; domestic smelter operating rates rebounded, with inventories high on both SHFE and LME.

· Weak demand: Seasonal slack in electronics, solder and tinplate; AI/photovoltaic/new energy demand resilient but low in share, unable to offset the decline.

3. Negative Feedback in Capital Flows

· Large earlier gains triggered long profit-taking; panic selling intensified, forming a drop–sell-off–further drop loop.

Current Status of the Tin Industry Chain

1. Upstream: Myanmar ore supply resumed, processing fees rebounded slightly, but smelters still faced losses.

2. Midstream: Smelter operating rates rose, inventories accumulated continuously, and destocking slowed.

3. Downstream: Wait-and-see attitude in traditional seasonal slack; emerging demand structurally resilient, overall weak.

Short-Term Outlook

1. 1–3 days: Weak oscillation to continue; watch support at 365,000 yuan/ton; break may target 360,000 yuan/ton.

2. 1–2 weeks: Monitor Fed meeting, U.S. dollar, Myanmar ore supply and downstream resumption; stabilization at 360,000–370,000 yuan/ton if bearish pressure eases, otherwise further decline.

Other Markets on the Day

1. Domestic base metals: All down, led by Shanghai tin.

2. Lack series: Mixed, with coke and coking coal up slightly.

3. Precious metals: Gold and silver weakened both overseas and domestic, with Shanghai silver falling sharply.

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